Weekly technical outlook and review
The Greenback, according to the US dollar index, wrapped up the week in negative territory, down 0.89%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note also hit its lowest level since early January Friday as US government debt rates closed lower for a second consecutive week.
This – coupled with the index fading weekly resistance around 97.70ish – the move lower eclipsed recent gains and positioned price action within striking distance of a monthly supply-turned support area at 95.13-92.75.
Meanwhile, in other currencies:
The British pound encountered volatile waters last week, concluding the session up 2.10%.
Brexit was the principal driver, with Parliament kicking off a series of votes by rejecting PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement for a second time Tuesday, and precipitating votes on a no deal (also ruled out), and finally whether to extend Article 50 beyond March 29 on Thursday, which was approved.
From a technical view, weekly supply at 1.3472-1.3204 remains in the fold, though may be fragile given the number of times this area has been tested since July 2018.
The euro also enjoyed a relatively successful week, reclaiming ECB-induced losses.
Largely bolstered by a soft US dollar across the board, the single currency penciled in a 0.82% gain vs. its US counterpart.
Technically, recent buying overthrew the 1.31 handle which has thus far held as support.
Weekly price trading from demand at 1.1119-1.1295 and daily flow displaying room to trade as far north as channel resistance (extended from the high 1.1569) suggests further buying could be in store this week.
Schedule of Economic Events and News
Last week, the US dollar weakened against currency majors.
The dollar index (#DX) set new monthly lows and closed in the negative zone. Brexit vote in the UK Parliament was the key event.
The House of Commons did not support the updated Brexit deal again.
On Thursday, March 14, British lawmakers voted for a decision to delay Brexit.
At the moment, investors expect the Fed, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England meetings.
In the upcoming trading week, we recommend paying attention to the following macroeconomic events.
Monday, March 18th
On Monday, the news feed will be calm.
At 01:50 (GMT+2:00), statistics on Japan trade balance will be published.
Tuesday, March 19th
On Tuesday, we expect important economic releases:
- RBA meeting minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2:00);
- Report on the labor market in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
- German ZEW economic sentiment at 12:00 (GMT+2:00).
Wednesday, March 20th
On Wednesday, the news feed will be full of events:
- Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2:00);
- Consumer price index in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
- New Zealand GDP at 23:45 (GMT+2:00);
At 20:00 (GMT+2:00), the Fed will announce its decision on a key interest rate.
The regulator is expected to keep the key marks of monetary policy unchanged.
We recommend paying attention to the comments by the Central Bank representatives.
Thursday, March 21st
On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England meetings will take place at 10:30 (GMT+2:00) and 14:00 (GMT+2:00), respectively.
Regulators are expected to keep key interest rates unchanged.
Important economic reports:
- Statistics on the labor market in Australia at 03:30 (GMT+2:00);
- Report on retail sales in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index at 14:30 (GMT+2:00).
Friday, March 22nd
On Friday, trading week will end with the publication of important statistics:
- German manufacturing PMI at 10:30 (GMT+2:00);
- A number of economic activity indices in the Eurozone at 11:00 (GMT+2:00);
- Statistics on inflation in Canada at 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
- Report on retail sales in Canada at 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
- Existing home sales in the US at 16:00 (GMT+2:00).